Under which conditions the war in Syria will end? How will be the new structure of the state?

Before Syrian uprising it was already known by some ‘’dark powers’’. I met with Saudi Diplomat and we discused about ''Arab Spring'' in 2010 and he told me that uprisings will come to Syria. Almost 2 years after our discassion, uprisings came to Syria. There was a discussion in Turkish Parliament about mined land between Turkey and Syria in 2009. Except one man, nobody mentioned about mined land that why did this area want to clean? When the uprising was started in Syria, B. Assad could easily stop the uprisings but he chose to fight against insurgents. B. Assad could make a deal with protestors but he did not. However, he chose to stop uprisings by using violence and global forces already would like to happen internal conflict in Syria. Because, internal conflits make the country week and unpowerful countries sells medicines, weapons, construction materials etc. B. Assad’s decision made the crise larger and bigger.

Since the uprisings began in Syria, there were many different groups came together against the regime. Russia, China and Iran support Assad’s. There are some economical reasons for Russia, Russia sells weapons, missiles and also natural sources. Iran has geopolitics reasons to support Assad’s regime, China has also strategic reasons. Turkish government and USA government support Free Syrian Army, Iran supports Al-Qaeda against Free Syrian Army. Iran and Syria are close strategic allies, and Iran has provided significant support for Syria in the Syrian Civil War. This is said to include technical support, some combat troops, and $9bn in financial support.   China does not want to be under the pressure of USA As we know USA has military and nuclear assistance in India. USA influence India's current political coalition, USA is threat for China. In addition, China needs more energy that is why they refused to join Iran-Syrian imports of oil ban and they effort to keep Iran-Syrian line as it before. China does not accept to say ‘’yes’’ for solution in United Nations. On the other hand Turkey and USA, Great Britain don not want to involve the conflict directly. USA wanted from Turkey to interfere Syria but Turkish government could not take a risk. Foreign minister A. Davutoğlu claimed that ‘’conflict will end 2-3 months later’’ in August, 2012.

There is another actor in Syria which supports Hezbollah Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah fighters joined the Syrian soldiers and militiamen loyal to Assad during fighting in the opposition stronghold of Qusair, a town close to the Lebanese border. Hezbollah has long been an ally of the Ba'ath Party government of Syria, led by the Al-Assad family. Hezbollah has allegedly helped the Syrian government in its fight against the armed Syrian opposition. In August 2012, the United States sanctioned Hezbollah for its alleged role in the war. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah denied Hezbollah had been fighting on behalf of the Syrian government, stating in a 12 October 2012 speech that "right from the start the Syrian opposition has been telling the media that Hizbullah sent 3,000 fighters to Syria, which we have denied"

The conflict in Syria has added to sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shiites in neighboring countries. Syria is a multi-confessional country with a Sunni Arab majority, but its army and government are dominated by members of the Alawite minority, an Arab religious community often associated with the Shiite branch of Islam.

If we consider all of these elements and actors we can not talk about to end the conflict soon. The conflict will end 10 months after presidential election. The purpose is establish small piece states all over the world. Conjuncture is not ready for ‘’Kurdistan’’ or to divide Irak and Syria. We will see more than 4-5 countries in the future in the middle east, maybe in 10 years. Probably, ‘’Kurdistan’’ will be one of them. PYD and the Free Syrian Army agreed about fighting againts B. Assad regime. Parties will not to make propaganda against eacht another, both sides of the parties will release prisoners immediately and unconditionally, Syrian Kurds or Arabs who left the management support of all political activists, Of all goods and weapons confiscation be returned to their owners etc… PYD and Free Syrian Army is together now.

John McCain came to Turkey in 26th May 2013 and had a meeting with some generals from Free Syrian Army. USA provided weapons for Free Syrian Army. CIA has begun delivering weapons to rebels in Syria, ending months of delay in lethal aid that had been promised by the Obama administration, according to U.S. officials and Syrian figures. The shipments began streaming into the country over the past two weeks, along with separate deliveries by the State Department of vehicles and other gear — a flow of material that marks a major escalation of the U.S. role in Syria’s civil war’

John McCain passed secretly from Turkey to Syria
Suprise Visit from Senator McCain to Syria

As I mentioned above The conflict will end 10 months after presidential election. The most important thing is what will happen after the conflict? Who will be alternatif for Essad and which regime will be the alternative. Because, Syria has a multi-national population from different religious groups and these groups are together to fight against Assad’s regime. Some of them want democratic government, some of them want sharia in their constitution.

The second important question is who will be the part of the new structure in Syria end of the Assad regime? Kurds will have their own state or not, we can not be sure about it but I think that everything will be like a lifeless fish soon. On the other hand, there are Turkmen groups who are also against B. Assad regime. If someone says ‘’division is necessary for Syria’’, they are men of ‘’global powers’’. If someone support B. Assad, they are men of Russia or China.

Under the light of these informations, I can say that Esad will survive a little bit more longer (maybe 2-3 years). We do not know about future so much.  All groups want to establish a new system, but as I said before future will be after presidential election in Turkey.

02.06.2014